The asymptotic distribution of the Gaussian quasi-maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE) is obtained for a wide class of asymmetric GARCH models with exogenous covariates. The true value of the parameter is not restricted to belong to the interior of the parameter space, which allows us to derive...

This paper proposes a measure of real-time inflation expectations based on metadata, i.e., data about data, constructed from internet search queries performed on the search engine Google. The forecasting performance of the Google Inflation Search Index (GISI) is assessed relative to 37 other...

This paper investigated the impact of Foreign Direct Investment on some selected macro-economic variables such as real GDP, gross fixed capital formation and unemployment. Data for the variables were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Statistical Bulletin. For the assessment of this...

This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...

I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the...

ABSTRAK Penulisan ini bertujuan mengkaji corak hubungan antara pembangunan ekonomi dengan pertumbuhan industri pelancong di beberapa negara utama ASEAN iaitu Malaysia, Thailand, Singapura dan Indonesia. Khususnya kajian cuba menguji hipotesis sama ada perkembangan industri pelancongan sebagai...

In studying the scale invariance of an empirical time series a twofold problem arises: it is necessary to test the series for self-similarity and, once passed such a test, the goal becomes to estimate the parameter H0 of self-similarity. The estimation is therefore correct only if the sequence...

A Bartlett-type formula is proposed for the asymptotic distribution of the sample autocorrelations of nonlinear processes. The asymptotic covariances between sample autocorrelations are expressed as the sum of two terms. The first term corresponds to the standard Bartlett's formula for linear...

In this paper, we extend Bai and Perron’s (1998, Econometrica, p.47-78) framework for multiple break testing to linear models estimated via Two Stage Least Squares (2SLS). Within our framework, the break points are estimated simultaneously with the regression parameters via minimization of the...

In this paper, we extend Bai and Perron's (1998, Econometrica, pp. 47-78) method for detecting multiple breaks to nonlinear models. To that end, we consider a nonlinear model that can be estimated via nonlinear least squares (NLS) and features a limited number of parameter shifts occurring at...