We decompose asset growth into external and internal growth and construct the expected investment growth measures based on different components. The expected external investment growth predicts future stock return positively and subsumes the expected investment growth premium controlling for...

The correlation between stock and bond returns is a cornerstone of asset allocation decisions. The correlation can move considerably over time, which can have a large impact on portfolio construction. Our empirical evidence points to inflation and real returns on short-term bonds, and the...

Estimating long-term expected returns as accurately as possible is of critical importance. Researchers typically base their estimates on yield and growth, valuation, or a combined yield, growth, and valuation framework. We run a horse race of the abilities of different frameworks and input...

We find that the FOMC-announcement-day return premium earned by a firm is positively related to the increase in its ex ante, option-implied skewness prior to the announcement. This finding is consistent with: (1) the existence of an announcement-day Fed put that is partially anticipated by the...

We examine which factor model best captures systematic return covariation by focusing on the economic implications for portfolio risk control. The pairwise variance equality test and the model confidence set procedure suggest that the Fama and French (2015) five-factor model, the Barillas and...

Traditional asset pricing tests boil down to evaluating the maximum Sharpe ratio obtained from the factors in a given model. This implicitly assumes the linear stochastic discount factor (SDF) that prices the factors as the asset pricing model. We generalize this approach by considering a...

Periodic spikes and waves in daily stock return predictability appear across quarterly and other frequencies and dissipate at more distant lags in the term structure of predictability. A 'long ripple' across the term structure spans more than one year of lags. The term structure's level and...

We survey the literature on stock return forecasting, highlighting the challenges faced by forecasters as well as strategies for improving return forecasts. We focus on U.S. equity premium forecastability and illustrate key issues via an empirical application based on updated data. Some studies...

We compare the performance of the time-series (TS) and cross-sectional (CS) momentum strategies in the US and China. The CS strategies by default are zero net investment strategies, whereas the TS strategies take on a time-varying net long position in risky assets. In the US, we confirm that the...