In this paper we test whether volatility in six emerging markets has changed significantly over the period 1976:01-2002:03. This period corresponds to the years of more profound development of both the financial and the productive sides in emerging countries. We use alternative methodologies of...

International capital flows have increased dramatically since the 1980s, with much of the increase being due to trade in equity and debt markets. Such developments are often attributed to the increased integration of world financial markets. We present a model that allows us to examine how...

The goal of the paper is to analyze how financial and economic crises affect the relation between capital flows and their determinants. We develop a model of foreign portfolio investment (FPI) and foreign direct investment (FDI), and apply it to Turkey using an endogenous break analysis and...

It is widely accepted that international trade is an important force transmitting business cycles from one country to another. Metaphors such as "when the U.S. sneezes, Europe catches a cold" are often invoked to illustrate the importance of these linkages. Recent empirical research has...

Markov switching regression processes belong to the class of Hidden Markov models (HMMs). They provide a higher flexibility than, for example, simple (auto)regression. The main reason for their popularity is the convenient interpretability. For sufficiently long time series, the different...

We investigate return predictability and the implied intertemporal hedging demands for stocks and bonds in the U.S., Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, and U.K. We first estimate predictive regression models for domestic bill, stock, and bond returns in each country, where returns depend...

In this paper, we develop an analytical framework for the estimation of potential output and output gaps for the euro area combining multivariate filtering techniques with the production function approach. The advantage of this methodology lies in the fact that it combines a model based approach...

This paper tests for long run PPP using a nonstationary panel regression framework that can accommodate both permanent and temporary shocks. It also uses the common correlated estimator of Pesaran (2003a) to take account of cross sectional dependence. The PPP null in our framework is a unit...

Monte Carlo simulations are used to explore the small-sample properties of a mean group and two pooled panel estimators of a regression coefficient when the regressor is I(1). We compare and contrast the effect of I(0) and I(1) errors and homogeneous and heterogeneous coefficients in a design...

For univariate time series we suggest a new variant of efficient score tests against fractional alternatives. This test has three important merits. First, by means of simulations we observe that it is superior in terms of size and power in some situations of practical interest. Second, it is...