[...]This article investigates whether changes in the termpremium tend to distort the term spread’s recession signals.3We begin by decomposing the term spread into an expectationscomponent and a term premium component, based on the Kimand Wright (2005) term premium estimates. Next, we...

[...]A key finding of our work is that for small auction sizes,TIO interest rates are fairly comparable to MBS repo rates forterm lengths of five days or more. However, shorter termlengths result in the Treasury receiving lower TIO rates relativeto market rates. We also observe a negative...