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that this may have contributed to more elastic aggregate supply in recent years, which is consistent with lower inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012302067
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011281619
Inflation dynamics, as well as its interaction with unemployment, have been puzzling since the Global Financial Crisis … forecast scenarios. We show that financial and external variables have the highest forecasting power for inflation and … unemployment, post-GFC …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011711582
Estimates of potential output are an important ingredient of structured forecasting and policy analysis. Using information on consensus forecasts, this paper extends the multivariate filter developed by Benes and others (2010). Although the estimates in real time are more robust relative to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014412027
role of labor costs and import prices in determining price inflation …This paper examines some of the factors that have been influential in keeping inflation low in the United States during … import prices, a slowdown in the growth of nonwage labor compensation, and a decline in labor costs. We also reassess the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401114
Low rates of inflation have been recorded in recent years, despite a decline in the unemployment rate. This phenomenon … explain the recent behavior of inflation. A leading explanation for recent inflation performance appears to be favorable price …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014403414
unemployment on inflation, for given expected inflation, decreased until the early 1990s, but has remained roughly stable since …-recession trend, suggesting hysteresis. Second, while inflation has decreased, it has decreased less than anticipated, suggesting a … breakdown of the relation between inflation and activity. To examine the first, we look at 122 recessions over the past 50 years …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012418077
A number of advanced economies carried out a sequence of extensive reforms of their labor and product markets in the … of reforms, those of New Zealand, Australia, Denmark, Ireland and Netherlands in the 1990s, and the labor market reforms …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011715188
In recent years, unemployment rates in some ECCU countries have been among the highest globally. This paper evaluates … several factors that could explain them, finding that high unit labor costs, in a context of strong unionization, are … significantly associated with high structural unemployment, while the global crisis added a cyclical component. Our analysis also …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012102104
unemployment by about 2.2 pp after five years. If sequencing is required, starting with PMRs would be more effective in boosting … output, while starting with LMRs would reduce unemployment faster. Finally, increasing unemployment benefits would be more …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012122485