We suggest using a class of semiparametric dynamic panel data models to capture individual variations in panel data. The model assumes linearity in some continu ous/discrete variables which can be exogenous/endogenous, and allows for nonlinearity in other weakly exogenous variables. We propose a...

It is often reported in the forecast combination literature that a simple average of candidate forecasts is more robust than sophisticated combining methods. This phenomenon is usually referred to as the “forecast combination puzzle”. Motivated by this puzzle, we explore its possible...

We consider a new method to estimate causal effects when a treated unit suffers a shock or an intervention, such as a policy change, but there is not a readily available control group or counterfactual. We propose a two-step approach where in the first stage an artificial counterfactual is...