Longevity risk has become a major challenge for governments, individuals, and annuity providers in most countries, and especially its aggregate form, i.e. the risk of unsystematic changes to general mortality patterns, bears a large potential for accumulative losses for insurers. As obvious risk...

Longevity risk has become a major challenge for governments, individuals, and annuity providers in most countries. In its aggregate form, the systematic risk of changes to general mortality patterns, it has the potential for causing large cumulative losses for insurers. Since obvious risk...

Historical VaR, CVaR and ES (Expected Shortfall) to LIQUIDATION Software is a model characterized by its straightforwardness, allowing regulators measure risk using a standard database of primitive factors and portfolio positions only, leaving little error margin in comparing market risk for...

The urgency of estimating the impact of climate risks on the financial system is increasingly recognized among scholars and practitioners. By adopting a network approach to financial dependencies, we look at how climate policy risk might propagate through the financial system. We develop a...

This study yields a contribution to a better understanding of the interest rate sensitivity of real estate and should enable a more sophisticated interest rate risk management, especially for insurance companies and pension funds. This is achieved by modelling the whole life of a typical but...

Longevity risk has become a major challenge for governments, individuals, and annuity providers in most countries, and especially its aggregate form, i.e. the risk of unsystematic changes to general mortality patterns, bears a large potential for accumulative losses for insurers. As obvious risk...

We introduce an adaptive importance sampling method for the loss distribution of credit portfolios based on the Robbins-Monro stochastic approximation procedure. After presenting the subtle construction of the algorithm, we apply our adaptive scheme for calculating the risk figures of a typical...

The Simulation-Based Excess Return Model (SERM) offers a simple, practical decision-making method for underwriting real estate development projects. It addresses the shortcomings of discounted cash flow modeling by taking into account the probabilistic distribution of outcomes and is based on...

The recent evolution of prudential regulation establishes a new requirement for banks and supervisors to perform reverse stress test exercises in their risk assessment processes, aimed at detecting default or near-default scenarios. We propose a reverse stress test methodology based on a...

We present a stochastic simulation forecasting model for stress testing that is aimed at assessing banks’ capital adequacy, financial fragility, and probability of default. The paper provides a theoretical presentation of the methodology and the essential features of the forecasting model on...