The study analyses the interaction between the trading behaviour of 1,024 moving average and momentum models and the fluctuations of the yen/dollar exchange rate. The paper shows first that these models would have exploited exchange rate trends quite profitably between 1976 and 1999, and then...

The paper investigates the profitability of 1,024 moving average and momentum models and their components in the yen-dollar market. It turns out that all models would have been profitable between 1976 and 2007. The models produce more single losses than single profits. At the same time, the size...

The study analyses the interaction between the trading behaviour of 1,024 moving average and momentum models and the fluctuations of the yen-dollar exchange rate. I show first that these models would have exploited exchange rate trends quite profitably between 1976 and 2007. I then show that the...

This paper investigates how technical trading systems exploit the momentum and reversal effects in the S&P 500 spot and futures market. When based on daily data, the profitability of 2,580 technical models has steadily declined since 1960, and has been unprofitable since the early 1990s....

Over the past three decades, trading in asset markets has become progressively more short-term oriented ("faster"), with traders attempting to exploit intraday price trends. Yet, over this time, asset prices have continued to move in a sequence of alternating "bull markets" and "bear markets",...

We explore the macro/finance interface in the context of equity markets. In particular, using half a century of Livingston expected business conditions data we characterize directly the impact of expected business conditions on expected excess stock returns. Expected business conditions...

We characterize the response of U.S., German and British stock, bond and foreign exchange markets to real-time U.S. macroeconomic news. Our analysis is based on a unique data set of high-frequency futures returns for each of the markets. We find that news surprises produce conditional mean...

We provide a simple and intuitive measure of interdependence of asset returns and/or volatilities. In particular, we formulate and examine precise and separate measures of return spillovers and volatility spillovers. Our framework facilitates study of both non-crisis and crisis episodes,...

We provide a simple and intuitive measure of interdependence of asset returns and/or volatilities. In particular, we formulate and examine precise and separate measures of return spillovers and volatility spillovers. Our framework facilitates study of both non-crisis and crisis episodes,...