Showing 1 - 10 of 145,714
This paper investigates the asset pricing implications of investor disagreement about the likelihood of a systematic disaster. I specify a general equilibrium model with multiple trees and heterogeneous beliefs about rare event risk, to understand how risk-sharing mechanisms affect equity and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012973305
We study whether prices of traded options contain information about future extreme market events. Our option-implied conditional expectation of market loss due to tail events, or tail loss measure, predicts future market returns, magnitude, and probability of the market crashes, beyond and above...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010226098
impact on stock return correlations than shocks to futures. We confirm the model predictions by studying the correlation of U …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013004525
We propose a risk-based firm-type explanation on why stocks of firms with high relative short interest (RSI) have lower future returns. We argue that these firms have negative alphas because they are a hedge against expected aggregate volatility risk. Consistent with this argument, we show that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013037671
In this paper, we propose an innovative VIX model which takes future market information available to the traders into account. The future information is modeled by an initially enlarged filtration in our setup. We derive an explicit representation for the anticipative VIX process and obtain the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012831500
The goal of this paper is to anchor a stochastic correlation model into the real-world multi-underlying equity … specifically look for a self-consistent mechanism to generate the implied correlation skew. We start with correlation model based … on the Jacobi process. In order to reach the steep short term index skew we extend it by adding jumps in correlation. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013027703
The zero-coupon yield curve is a common input for most financial purposes. The authors consider three popular yield curve datasets, and explore the extent to which the decision as to what dataset to use for an application may have implications on the results. The paper illustrates why such...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011901875
that characterize long-term correlation patterns. We associate such term behavior with low frequency economic variables … improves the empirical fit of equity correlations in the US and correlation forecasts at long horizons. -- Factor models ; Low … frequency volatilities and correlations ; Dynamic conditional correlation ; Spline-GARCH ; Idiosyncratic volatility ; Long …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003821063
measuring the contemporaneous correlation between the return shock and the volatility shock. We show that the contemporaneous … correlation can be quantified within an EGARCH model, where the composite disturbance to the return follows a normal log … the contemporaneous correlation being negative and the ARCH-M effect being positive …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013133961
time-varying extreme correlation of stock-bond futures markets. There is evidence of positive extreme correlation between …, German stock-bond futures extreme correlation is negative, which suggests most diversification potentials of German bond … uncertainty all significantly affect the median stock-bond futures correlation. By contrast, only the stock market uncertainty …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013120892