Showing 1 - 10 of 50
– 2010 I exhaustively evaluate the forecasting properties of Bayesian shrinkage in regressions with many predictors. Results …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009000949
is assessed in forecasting three major macroeconomic time series of the UK economy. Data-based restrictions of VAR … coefficients can help improve upon their unrestricted counterparts in forecasting, and in many cases they compare favorably to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008764097
In this paper we develop methods for estimation and forecasting in large time-varying parameter vector autoregressive … application involving forecasting inflation, real output, and interest rates demonstrates the feasibility and usefulness of our …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010540685
This paper compares the forecasting performance of different models which have been proposed for forecasting in the … macroeconomic time series, we demonstrate the presence of structural breaks and their importance for forecasting in the vast … majority of cases. We find no single forecasting model consistently works best in the presence of structural breaks. In many …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009142658
Empirical assessments of the forecasting power of spatial panel data econometric models are still scarcely available … test different forecasting horizons, in order to investigate the speed of deterioration of forecasting quality. We compare … appears to diminish as the forecasting horizon widens, eventually leading the SF model to being preferred for more distant …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010734921
We explore how the ECB sets interest rates in the context of policy reaction functions. Using both real-time and revised information, we consider linear and nonlinear policy functions in inflation, output and a measure of financial conditions. We find that amongst Taylor rule models, linear and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008511775
This paper considers Bayesian variable selection in regressions with a large number of possibly highly correlated macroeconomic predictors. I show that by acknowledging the correlation structure in the predictors can improve forecasts over existing popular Bayesian variable selection algorithms.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010614521
This paper provides an insight to the time-varying dynamics of the shape of the distribution of financial return series by proposing an exponential weighted moving average model that jointly estimates volatility, skewness and kurtosis over time using a modified form of the Gram-Charlier density...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010551735
Macroeconomic practitioners frequently work with multivariate time series models such as VARs, factor augmented VARs as well as time-varying parameter versions of these models (including variants with multivariate stochastic volatility). These models have a large number of parameters and, thus,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008487526
This paper studies the forecasting performance of the general equilibrium model of bond yields of Marzo, Söderström and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008860734