The economics of climate change involves a vast array of uncertainties, complicating both the analysis and development of climate policy. This study presents the results of the first comprehensive study of uncertainty in climate change using multiple integrated assessment models. The study looks...

The 2008 financial crisis did not precipitate global retaliatory trade intervention, in seeming contrast to the Great Depression in 1930s. This paper discusses the influence of model structure in optimal tariff (OT) calculations in explaining this puzzle. We emphasize how earlier literature...

We use data on deaths in New York City, Madrid, Stockholm, and other world cities as well as in various U.S. states and various countries and regions to estimate a standard epidemiological model of COVID-19. We allow for a time-varying contact rate in order to capture behavioral and...

This paper provides a critical review of models of the spread of the coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic that have been influential in recent policy decisions. There is tremendous opportunity for social scientists to advance the relevant literature as new and better data becomes available to...

We present a pricing kernel that summarizes well the main features of the dynamics of interest rates and risk in postwar U.S. data and use it to uncover how the pricing kernel has moved with the short rate in this data. Our findings imply that standard monetary models miss an essential link...