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Benchmark Priors Revisited:on Adaptive Shrinkage and the Supermodel Effect in Bayesian Model Averaging
Feldkircher, Martin; Zeugner, Stefan - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2009
Default prior choices fixing Zellner's g are predominant in the Bayesian Model Averaging literature, but tend to concentrate posterior mass on a tiny set of models. The paper demonstrates this supermodel effect and proposes to address it by a hyper-g prior, whose data-dependent shrinkage adapts...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008559278
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How adoption rates, timing, and ceilings affect the value of ENSO-based climate forecasts.
Rubas, Debra J.; Mjelde, James W.; Love, H. Alan; … - 2008
An international wheat trade model incorporating climate variability is used to simulate different scenarios when wheat producers in the USA, Canada, and Australia adopt El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-based climate forecasts for use in production decisions. Adoption timing and rates are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009429458
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Methods for developing and validating survivability distributions
Williams, R.L. - 2008
on two alternate data sets, reflecting the effects of increased testing of all elements. It then shows how this … additional testing could be optimized by concentrating only on those elements contained in the low-order fault sets which the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009435451
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Principles and applications of measurement and uncertainty analysis in research and calibration
Wells, C.V. - 2008
perspectives of both research and calibration environments. It presents a history of the development and an overview of the … just as true about calibration or research results as it was in 1968. Why is that true What kind of information should we … these and other questions about uncertainty in research and in calibration. The methodology to be described has been …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009435971
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Principles and applications of measurement and uncertainty analysis in research and calibration
Wells, C.V. - 2008
perspectives of both research and calibration environments. It presents a history of the development and an overview of the … is just as true about calibration or research results as it was in 1968. Why is that true? What kind of information … provide answers to these and other questions about uncertainty in research and in calibration. The methodology to be described …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009437210
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Jamaica; Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund (IMF); International … - 2008
Economic outcomes in Jamaica have fallen short of the authorities’ objectives in recent years. As the government looks to reinvigorate its growth and debt reduction strategy, it is instructive to examine how exogenous shocks and other unanticipated developments can affect economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011245592
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The perils of policy by p-value: Predicting civil conflicts
Ward, Michael D; Greenhill, Brian D; Bakke, Kristin M - In: Journal of Peace Research 47 (2010) 4, pp. 363-375
Large-n studies of conflict have produced a large number of statistically significant results but little accurate guidance in terms of anticipating the onset of conflict. The authors argue that too much attention has been paid to finding statistically significant relationships, while too little...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008855383
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A review on the prediction of building energy consumption
Zhao, Hai-xiang; Magoulès, Frédéric - In: Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 16 (2012) 6, pp. 3586-3592
behavior. This complex situation makes it very difficult to accurately implement the prediction of building energy consumption …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010664499
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Forecasting distributions of large federal-lands fires utilizing satellite and gridded weather information.
Preisler, Haiganoush K.; Burgan, Robert E.; Eidenshink, … - 2009
The current study presents a statistical model for assessing the skill of fire danger indices and for forecasting the distribution of the expected numbers of large fires over a given region and for the upcoming week. The procedure permits development of daily maps that forecast, for the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009429429
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Forecasting Commodity Prices; Futures Versus Judgment
Husain, Aasim M.; Bowman, Chakriya - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2004
This paper assesses the performance of three types of commodity price forecasts—those based on judgment, those relying exclusively on historical price data, and those incorporating prices implied by commodity futures. For most of the 15 commodities in the sample, spot and futures prices appear...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005599405