This paper discusses Bayesian procedures for factor selection in dynamic term structure models through simulation methods based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo. The number of factors, besides influencing the fitting and prediction of observed yields, is also relevant to features such as the...

The aim of the paper is to consider the problem of selecting the number of breaks in the mean of a time series. Indeed, we prove analytically and show by a Monte Carlo study that some model selection criteria will tend to choose a spuriously high number of structural breaks when the process is...

In applied research, the Schwarz Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and the F-test might yield different inferences about the causal relationships being investigated. This paper examines the relationship between the BIC and the F-tests in the context of Granger-causality tests. We calculate...

In applied research, the Schwarz Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and the F-test might yield different inferences about the causal relationships being investigated. This paper examines the relationship between the BIC and the F-tests in the context of Granger-causality tests. We calculate...

The aim of the paper is to consider the problem of selecting the number of breaks in the mean of a time series. Indeed, we prove analytically and show by a Monte Carlo study that some model selection criteria will tend to choose a spuriously high number of structural breaks when the process is...

There are four-parameter income distribution models that have good reputation for goodness-of-fit. In contrast, the existing models with five or more parameters fail to achieve a satisfactory level of goodness-of-fit. We propose a new seven-parameter model that is empirically shown to be...