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I use monthly data on industrial production to estimate the distribution of international business cycle correlations since the 1980's, with focus on the current turmoil. The degree of international correlation in national business cycles since the end of 2008 is unprecedented in three decades....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008607504
Structural vector autoregressive (VAR) models were introduced in 1980 as an alternative to traditional large … of the structural VAR methodology often were atheoretical in that users paid insufficient attention to the conditions … identifying assumptions the structural VAR literature has continuously evolved since the 1980s. This survey traces the evolution …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009201117
One of the leading methods of estimating the structural parameters of DSGE models is the VAR-based impulse response … response parameters exceeds the number of VAR model parameters. Situations in which this order condition is violated arise …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011145457
Recently, there has been increased interest in real-time forecasts of the real price of crude oil. Standard oil price forecasts based on reduced-form regressions or based on oil futures prices do not allow consumers of forecasts to explore how much the forecast would change relative to the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009385759
Using indirect inference based on a VAR we confront US data from 1972 to 2007 with a standard New Keynesian model in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008692309
Recent research has shown that recursive real-time VAR forecasts of the real price of oil tend to be more accurate than … benefits of allowing for time variation in VAR model parameters and of constructing forecast combinations. We conclude that … quarterly forecasts of the real price of oil from suitably designed VAR models estimated on monthly data generate the most …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083683
and what assumptions we have made in doing so. Furthermore, we perform a VAR analysis to provide some simple empirical …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083948
Out-of-sample forecasting tests of DSGE models against time-series benchmarks such as an unrestricted VAR are … improve forecasts from an unrestricted VAR. In testing forecasting capacity they also have quite weak power, particularly on … improve on VAR forecasts. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084547
-biased technology shocks in a VAR with long-run restrictions. Hours fall in response to skill-biased technology shocks, indicating that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009643505
generalize Campbell's VAR implementation of Campbell and Shiller's present value decomposition to allow for parameter instability …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083330