Monetary policy is modeled as governed by a known rule, except for a time-varying target rate of inflation. The variable target is taken as representing either discretionary deviations from the rule, or as the outcome of a policymaking committee that is unable to arrive at a consensus....

a speech at the The Brimmer Policy Forum, Allied Social Science Associations Annual Meeting, Denver, Colorado, January 8, 2011

a speech at the Committee for Economic Development 2010 International Counterparts Conference, New York, New York, December 1, 2010

a speech at the Annual Meeting of the National Association for Business Economics, Denver, Colorado, October 11, 2010

Remarks at the National Association of Business Economists, Washington, DC, March 13, 1996

remarks at the Economic Club of New York, New York, New York, April 11, 2011

a speech at the Banque de France International Symposium, Paris, France, March 4, 2011

I study 46 vintages of FRB/US, the principal macro model used by Federal Reserve Board staff for forecasting and policy analysis, as measures of real-time model uncertainty. I also study the implications of model uncertainty for the robustness of commonly applied, simple monetary policy rules. I...

In recent years, the learnability of rational expectations equilibria (REE) and determinacy of economic structures have rightfully joined the usual performance criteria among the sought-after goals of policy design. Some contributions to the literature, including Bullard and Mitra (2001) and...

We outline a method to provide advice on optimal monetary policy while taking policymakers' judgment into account. The method constructs optimal policy projections (OPPs) by extracting the judgment terms that allow a model, such as the Federal Reserve Board staff economic model, FRB/US, to...