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estimates from more complex structural forecasting models. …
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A time series methodology is used to understand the Ohio economy by assessing various indicators of economic activity in Ohio. These can be identified and quantified through simple methods applicable to other regional economies, as well.
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A study using out-of-sample regressions to determine how well the 10-year, 3-month yield spread predicts future real GDP growth. The author finds that although the yield curve is a good predictor over the entire 30-year sample period, it has become much less accurate over the last decade.
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