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Methods for dependency estimation and system unavailability evaluation based on failure data statistics. Volume 1, Summary report

Azarm, M.A.; Hsu, F.; Martinez-Guridi, G.; Vesely, W.E. - 2008

This report introduces a new perspective on the basic concept of dependent failures where the definition of dependency is based on clustering in failure times of similar components. This perspective has two significant implications: first, it relaxes the conventional assumption that dependent...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009435403

Methods for dependency estimation and system unavailability evaluation based on failure data statistics. Volume 2, Detailed description and applications

Azarm, M.A.; Hsu, F.; Martinez-Guridi, G.; Vesely, W.E. - 2008

This report introduces a new perspective on the basic concept of dependent failures where the definition of dependency is based on clustering in failure times of similar components. This perspective has two significant implications: firstly, it relaxes the conventional assumption that dependent...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009435910

Statistical Wind Power Forecasting for U.S. Wind Farms: Preprint

Milligan, M.; Schwartz, M. N.; Wan, Y. - 2008

Electricity markets in the United States are evolving. Accurate wind power forecasts are beneficial for wind plant operators, utility operators, and utility customers. An accurate forecast allows grid operators to schedule economically efficient generation to meet the demand of electrical...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009436850

Short-Term Power Fluctuation of Wind Turbines: Analyzing Data from the German 250-MW Measurement Program from the Ancillary Services Viewpoint

Ernst, B.; Wan, Y.-H.; Kirby, B. - 2008

Short-term power fluctuations from wind farms may affect interconnected-grid operating costs and stability. With the increasing availability of wind power worldwide, this has become a concern for some utilities. Under electric industry restructuring in the United States, the impact of these...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009436884

Methods for developing and validating survivability distributions

Williams, R.L. - 2008

A previous report explored and discussed statistical methods and procedures that may be applied to validate the survivability of a complex system of systems that cannot be tested as an entity. It described a methodology where Monte Carlo simulation was used to develop the system survivability...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009435451

Model documentation: Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model of the National Energy Modeling System; Volume 1

2008

The Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model (NGTDM) is a component of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) used to represent the domestic natural gas transmission and distribution system. NEMS is the third in a series of computer-based, midterm energy modeling systems used since...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009437181

Approaches to implementing deterministic models in a probabilistic framework

Talbott, D.V. - 2009

The increasing use of results from probabilistic risk assessments in the decision-making process makes it ever more important to eliminate simplifications in probabilistic models that might lead to conservative results. One area in which conservative simplifications are often made is modeling...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009435480

Statistical validation of system models

Barney, P.; Ferregut, C.; Perez, L.E.; Hunter, N.F.; … - 2009

It is common practice in system analysis to develop mathematical models for system behavior. Frequently, the actual system being modeled is also available for testing and observation, and sometimes the test data are used to help identify the parameters of the mathematical model. However, no...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009436156

Combination of Evidence in Dempster-Shafer Theory

SENTZ, KARI; FERSON, SCOTT - 2008

uncertainty. The significant innovation of this framework is that it allows for the allocation of a probability mass to sets or … intervals. Dempster-Shafer theory does not require an assumption regarding the probability of the individual constituents of the … set or interval. This is a potentially valuable tool for the evaluation of risk and reliability in engineering …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009435897

Comparison of financing costs for wind turbine and fossil powerplants

Kahn, E. - 2009

This paper compares the financing costs of wind turbine powerplants with those of fossil powerplants. The goal of this examination is to determine the extent to which these costs differ and what the sources of such differences may be. The discussion is organized in the following fashion. Section...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009435892

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