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The Term Structure of Forward Exchange Premia and the Forecastability of Spot Exchange Rates: Correcting the Errors

Clarida, Richard; Taylor, Mark P - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1993

This paper challenges the widespread view that forward exchange premia contain little information regarding subsequent … spot rate movements. Using weekly dollar/Deutschmark and dollar/sterling data, we show that spot and forward exchange rates … cointegrating space. Dynamic forecasts indicate that the information in the forward premia can be used to reduce the root mean …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005662140

The Potato's Contribution to Population and Urbanization: Evidence from an Historical Experiment

Nunn, Nathan; Qian, Nancy - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2009

We exploit regional variation in suitability for cultivating potatoes, together with time variation arising from their introduction to the Old World from the Americas, to estimate the impact of potatoes on Old World population and urbanization. Our results show that the introduction of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005039579

Energy Policy Issues after Privatisation

Newbery, David M G - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1986

The purpose of this paper is to investigate how energy policy should respond to the changes in the organisation of energy sector associated with privatisation. The paper begins with a brief review of how energy policy was perceived before the 1973 oil shock, and the lessons learned from...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666940

Who Benefits from Regional Trade Agreements? The View from the Stock Market

Moser, Christoph; Rose, Andrew K - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011

market data and an event-study approach, using a daily data set covering a thousand announcements spanning over eighty …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009293663

Protectionism Isn’t Counter-Cyclic (anymore)

Rose, Andrew K - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2012

. While that may have been a valid description of the data before the Second World War, it is no longer accurate. In the post … during cyclic downturns; if anything, they tend to fall. I document this new stylized fact with a wide panel of data, using a …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083599

Rose, Andrew K - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2013

data from more than 170 countries from 2007 through 2012 and find that the macroeconomic and financial consequences of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083734

Why Do Trade Negotiations Take So Long?

Moser, Christoph; Rose, Andrew K - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2012

the span between the start of trade talks and their conclusion. We use data from 88 regional trade agreements between 1988 …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083302

Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis: Early Warning

Rose, Andrew K; Spiegel, Mark - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2009

This paper models the causes of the 2008 financial crisis together with its manifestations, using a Multiple Indicator Multiple Cause (MIMIC) model. Our analysis is conducted on a cross-section of 107 countries; we focus on national causes and consequences of the crisis, ignoring cross-country...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004969128

Inflation Targeting and Business Cycle Synchronization

Flood, Robert P; Rose, Andrew K - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2009

Inflation targeting seems to have a small but positive effect on the synchronization of business cycles; countries that target inflation seem to have cycles that move slightly more closely with foreign cycles. Thus the advent of inflation targeting does not explain the decoupling of global...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004973969

The Olympic Effect

Rose, Andrew K; Spiegel, Mark - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2009

Economists are skeptical about the economic benefits of hosting "mega-events" such as the Olympic Games or the World Cup, since such activities have considerable cost and seem to yield few tangible benefits. These doubts are rarely shared by policy-makers and the population, who are typically...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005788959

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