also allows to quantify their effect in the response/behavior/performance of the system. In such a framework the … performance function(s) of interest are also random and optimization of the system with respect to the design variables has to be … reformulated with respect to statistical properties of these objectives functions (e.g. probability of exceeding certain thresholds …

nodes representing random variables and directed edges indicating causality between variables. Each node has a probability … distribution, conditional on the variables represented by the parent nodes. A DBN's graphical structure encodes fixed conditional … to the next: a distribution's parameters and its set of conditional variables are dynamic. This work builds on recent …

) that achieves the lowest total project cost for a given probability of success while meeting technical performance and … not just individual risks. The efficient RRA set is determined based on ''Outcome Cost Vs Probability of Success''. The … risks and RRAs are characterized using scenarios, decision trees, and cumulative probability distributions. The analysis …

certain probability distribution function (PDF). Upon many realizations of the model, one can get reliable information about …--albeit imprecise--goal in all these activities is to ''optimize performance,'' which is to have maximal success/profit/return with … itself to the overall performance and affordability. This is not unreasonable, since oftentimes major upgrades on some …

battlespace. Commonly, human reliability analysis has been used to predict failures of human performance in complex, critical …, including acceptance of new technology, upon performance. The cultural parameters used to modify the human reliability analysis … modeling, and (3) discusses the differences in human error probability estimates arising from cultural differences. …

around hydro conditions, market prices and river operations for fish recovery. In order to provide a high probability of … expenses). BPA subsequently evaluates in the ToolKit Model the Treasury Payment Probability (TPP) resulting from the rates … proposing a Dividend Distribution Clause (DDC) to refund reserves in excess of $800M to customers in the event net revenues in …

Risk is the product of the probability and consequences of an event. Both of these must be based upon sound science … understand all aspects of the underlying science. We review a decision framework used in many fields such as performance … integrated risk assessment. In this framework the underlying scientific understanding of processes that affect probability and …

uncertainty. The significant innovation of this framework is that it allows for the allocation of a probability mass to sets or … intervals. Dempster-Shafer theory does not require an assumption regarding the probability of the individual constituents of the …

map plots the relative preference of alternative risk-mitigation options versus the annual probability of an undesired …

resorting to large sample sizes. A promising altemative to these methods is the fast probability integration (FPI) methods … driving the top event frequency response in extreme probability regions. In this paper, FPI methods are adapted a) to …