of monetary policy shocks, and we observe that the reaction of GDP, the GDP deflator, inflation expectations and long …

period 1970Q1 - 2003Q4 for ten macroeconomic variables. The years 2000 - 2003 are used as forecasting period. A range of … different univariate forecasting methods is applied. Some of them are based on linear autoregressive models and we also use some … forecasting variables which need considerable adjustments in their levels when joining German and EMU data. These results suggest …

period 1970Q1-2003Q4 for 10 macroeconomic variables. The years 2000-2003 are used as forecasting period. A range of different … univariate forecasting methods is applied. Some of them are based on linear autoregressive models and we also use some nonlinear … forecasting variables which need considerable adjustments in their levels when joining German and European Monetary Union (EMU …

whenever there is structural instability in factor loadings. For empirical applications, we consider forecasting economic …

an accurate calibration of forecast confidence intervals, and is better suited at long horizons and in high …

focusing on forecasting inflation and GDP growth in a panel of countries confirms this finding. …

Models based on economic theory have serious problems at forecasting exchange rates better than simple univariate … forecasting. In addition, we adopt a driftless random walk prior, so that cross-dynamics matter for forecasting only if there is …