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What’s in a poll? Incentives for truthful reporting in pre-election opinion surveys
Burke, Jeremy; Taylor, Curtis - In: Public Choice 137 (2008) 1, pp. 221-244
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005809538
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Eliminating Public Knowledge Biases in Information-Aggregation Mechanisms
Chen, Kay-Yut; Fine, Leslie R.; Huberman, Bernardo A. - In: Management Science 50 (2004) 7, pp. 983-994
We present a novel methodology for identifying public knowledge and eliminating the biases it creates when aggregating information in small group settings. A two-stage mechanism consisting of an information market and a coordination game is used to reveal and adjust for individuals' public...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009218389
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Why prediction markets work : The role of information acquisition and endogenous weighting
Siemroth, Christoph - Abteilung für Volkswirtschaftslehre, Universität Mannheim - 2014
In prediction markets, investors trade assets whose values are contingent on the occurrence of future events, like election outcomes. Prediction market prices have been shown to be consistently accurate forecasts of these outcomes, but we don't know why. I formally illustrate an information...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010833234
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Prediction markets: an information aggregation perspective to the forecasting problem
Tziralis, Georgios; Tatsiopoulos, Ilias - In: World Review of Entrepreneurship, Management and … 3 (2007) 3/4, pp. 251-259
Lately, traditional forecasting methods have been depicted as inferior to newer ones which are attempting to simulate … inverse approach to the forecasting problem. The typical process of attempting to subtractively model the expert's knowledge …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010670087
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RESULTS FROM A SIMPLE PREDICTION CONTEST
Blackwell, Calvin - In: Journal of Prediction Markets 5 (2011) 1, pp. 12-25
In a prediction contest participants compete for a prize by submitting guesses regarding an unknown variable; the winner of the contest is the participant who submits the most accurate guess. In this paper the results of a simple prediction contest are reported. In the contest, certain members of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010798250
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Predicting box office with and without markets: Do internet users know anything?
McKenzie, Jordi - In: Information Economics and Policy 25 (2013) 2, pp. 70-80
This study investigates and compares predictions of opening weekend box office revenue from an online prediction game, the Derby, and an online prediction market, the Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX), using a sample of 141 films released in 2007. Overall, both mechanisms provide accurate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010682545
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Why prediction markets work : the role of information acquisition and endogenous weighting
Siemroth, Christoph - Abteilung für Volkswirtschaftslehre, Universität Mannheim - 2014
In prediction markets, investors trade assets whose values are contingent on the occurrence of future events, like election outcomes. Prediction market prices have been shown to be consistently accurate forecasts of these outcomes, but we don't know why. I formally illustrate an information...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011161440
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Prediction Markets in Theory and Practice
Wolfers, Justin; Zitzewitz, Eric - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2006
Prediction Markets, sometimes referred to as 'information markets', 'idea futures' or 'event futures', are markets where participants trade contracts whose payoffs are tied to a future event, thereby yielding prices that can be interpreted as market-aggregated forecasts. This article summarizes...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005662203
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Forecasting and policy making
Wieland, Volker; Wolters, Maik Hendrik - House of Finance, Goethe Universität Frankfurt am Main - 2012
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010955284
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Inflation expectations in Spain: The Spanish PwC Survey
Ramos-Herrera, María del Carmen; Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón - In: Cuadernos de Economía - Spanish Journal of Economics … 36 (2013) 101, pp. 109-115
expectations, using a survey conducted in Spain by PwC, among a panel of experts and entrepreneurs. When analysing the headline … inflation rate, our results suggest that the PwC panel has some forecasting ability for time horizons from 3 to 9 months … inflation used. As for the consistency properties of the inflation expectations formation process, we find that panel members …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010929567