Using the FUND model, an impact assessment is conducted over the 21st century for rises in sea level of up to 2-m/century and a range of socio-economic scenarios downscaled to the national level, including the four SRES (IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) storylines. Unlike a...

The generalised Pareto distribution (GPD) is often used to model the distribution of storm peak wave heights exceeding a high threshold, from which return values can be calculated. There are large differences in the performance of various parameter and quantile estimators for the GPD. Commonly...

This paper investigates the nature of model error in complex deterministic nonlinear systems such as weather forecasting models. Forecasting systems incorporate two components, a forecast model and a data assimilation method. The latter projects a collection of observations of reality into a...

Autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) are used increasingly to explore hazardous marine environments. Risk assessment for such complex systems is based on subjective judgment and expert knowledge as much as on hard statistics. Here, we describe the use of a risk management process tailored to...

The use of reverse-running pumps as turbines (PATs) is a promising technology for small-scale hydropower. This thesis reviews the published knowledge about PATs and deals with some areas of uncertainty that have hampered their dissemination, especially in 'developing' countries. Two options for...

An ocean observing system to provide the data for climate research, modelling, and forecasting must be designed to high standards of accuracy and continuity. The observations are maintained for many years to develop the criteria for climate forecasting, and hence, in the meantime many of the...

We describe the development of an efficient method for parameter estimation and ensemble forecasting in climate modelling. The technique is based on the ensemble Kalman filter and is several orders of magnitude more efficient than many others which have been previously used to address this...

Zooplankton mortality in plankton population models is often represented by the so-called closure term. Recently, much attention has been paid to the choice of functional form used for the closure term, primarily due to the influential paper by Steele and Henderson (J. Plankton Res., 14,...

Policy interest in the cost of adaptation is growing, but compared to the mitigation literature adaptation cost research is still in its infancy. Global adaptation cost estimates from more recent studies range from around $25 billion a year to well over $100 billion by 2015-2030. The wide range...

We demonstrate a method for integrating environmental effects into a computable general equilibrium model. This is a critical step forward toward the development of improved integrated assessment models of environmental change. We apply the method to examine the economic consequences of air...