Showing 1 - 10 of 184
We introduce a new point process, the dynamic contagion process, by gener- alising the Hawkes process and the Cox process with shot noise intensity. Our process includes both self-excited and externally excited jumps, which could be used to model the dynamic contagion impact from endogenous and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009439495
Economic theory typically assumes the existence of few unobserved unpredictable stochastic disturbances, called structural shocks, driving the whole economy. Would the economy be representable as a very high dimensional stochastic vector process, those shocks would be the reduced rank innovation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009439508
We study the topological properties of the multinetwork of commodity-specific trade relations among world countries over the 1992–2003 period, comparing them with those of the aggregate-trade network, known in the literature as the international-trade network (ITN). We show that link-weight...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009439509
We study the community structure of the multi-network of commodity-specific trade relations among world countries over the 1992-2003 period. We compare structures across commodities and time by means of the normalized mutual information index (NMI). We also compare them with exogenous community...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009439511
When observed over a large panel, measures of risk (such as realized volatilities) usually exhibit a secular trend around which individual risks cluster. In this article we propose a vector Multiplicative Error Model achieving a decomposition of each risk measure into a common systematic and an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009439512
Motivated by prediction problems for time series with heavy-tailed marginal distributions, we consider methods based on `local least absolute deviations' for estimating a regression median from dependent data. Unlike more conventional `local median' methods, which are in effect based on locally...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009439518
We investigate the time-varying ARCH (tvARCH) process. It is shown that it can be used to describe the slow decay of the sample autocorrelations of the squared returns often observed in financial time series, which warrants the further study of parameter estimation methods for the model. Since...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009439683
We consider a locally stationary model for financial log-returns whereby the returns are independent and the volatility is a piecewise-constant function with jumps of an unknown number and locations, defined on a compact interval to enable a meaningful estimation theory. We demonstrate that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009439684
The generalized varying coefficient partially linear model with growing number of predictors arises in many contemporary scientific endeavor. In this paper we set foot on both theoretical and practical sides of profile likelihood estimation and inference. When the number of parameters grows with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009439700
We propose two new types of nonparametric tests for investigating multivariate regression functions. The tests are based on cumulative sums coupled with either minimum volume sets or inverse regression ideas; involving no multivariate nonparametric regression estimation. The methods proposed...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009439712