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This paper applies receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to micro-level, monthly time series from the M3 … demand. Using the partial area under the ROC curve (PAUC) criterion as a forecast accuracy measure and paired …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010636403
distributions. For this purpose, the paper introduces application of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) framework, which … the most complex multivariate model is best for forecasting exceptional conditions, using ROC forecast accuracy measures. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009441233
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The Theta model created a lot of interest in academic circles due to its surprising performance in the M3-competition. However, this interest was not followed by a large number of studies, with the exception of Hyndman and Billah in 2003. The present study discusses the advances in the model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005636108
Many clients rely heavily on pretender price forecasts, provided by the Quantity Surveyor (QS), for their investment decisions. During the preliminary design stage, it is very common in practice for Q.S. to use historical building price data on which to base the forecast of the target project ?...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009483262
Building client/owners need estimates of likely construction costs for budgeting purposes early in the procurement process when little detailed design information is available beyond the type, size and location of the facility. One of the more sophisticated techniques available for this purpose...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009483449
Prediction markets are viewed as the most accurate instrument for collective forecasts. However, empirical studies, mostly based on political elections, deliver mixed results. An experimental study was conducted to avoid certain biases and problems and to better control conditions of eliciting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010850156
Electrical load forecasting has always played a key role in power system administration, planning for energy transfer scheduling and load dispatch. For electrical load forecasting, due to the fact that combined model has the capacity to effectively calculate the seasonality and nonlinearity...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011209458
This study evaluates the forecasting accuracy of five alternative econometric models in the context of predicting the quarterly international tourism demand in 25 countries or country groupings. Tourism demand is measured in terms of tourist expenditure by inbound international visitors in a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005020366