The volatility of agricultural markets has increased remarkably in recent years. In spite of this, the way in which supply chain actors perceive market volatility has only rarely been analyzed. This paper seeks to close this research gap by presenting empirical findings about how the volatility...

Food risks may be caused by moral hazard, i.e. by opportunisticbehaviour of upstream sellers who exploit the fact that many foodproduct qualities remain uncertain to downstream buyers in thecourse of conventional market transactions (credence qualities).Due to this lack of market transparency...

Options on agricultural futures are popular financial instruments used for agricultural price risk management and to speculate on future price movements. Poor performance of Black’s classical option pricing model has stimulated many researchers to introduce pricing models that are more...

We theoretically examine a farmer’s coverage demand with area and individual insurance plans as either separate or integrated options. The individual and area losses are assumed to be imperfectly and positively correlated. With actuarially fair rates, the farmer will fully insure with the...

This paper investigates the dynamics of sequential decision-making in agricultural futures andoptions markets using a quantile regression framework. Analysis of trading records of 12 traderssuggests that there is great heterogeneity in individual trading behavior. Traders responddifferently to...

We study the difference in the volatility dynamics of CBOT corn, soybeans, and oatsfutures prices across different delivery horizons via the smoothed Bayesian estimatorof Karali, Dorfman, and Thurman (2010). We show that the futures price volatilitiesin these markets are affected by the...

Taken together, studies that examine how well commodity futures marketsperform find that risk premiums are common—and so unbiasedness is not—and marketsare not uniformly efficient across commodities or forecast horizons. This large body ofresearch sheds important light on whether and to what...

Hedging effectiveness is the proportion of price risk removed through hedging. Empiricalhedging studies typically estimate a set of risk minimizing hedge ratios, estimate the hedgingeffectiveness statistic, apply the estimated hedge ratios to a second group of data, and examinethe robustness of...

The commodity bull cycle of 2006-2008 and subsequent dramatic price decline have been asource of hardship for traditional commodity market participants such as producers andmerchant/shippers. The usefulness of futures markets has been called into question, especiallygiven that some market...

Futures prices when combined with a basis forecast provide a reliable way to forecast cashprices. The most popular method of forecasting basis is historical moving averages. Given therecent failure of longer moving averages proposed by previous studies, this research reassessespast...