The argument that policy risk, i.e., uncertainty about monetary and fiscal policy, has been holding back the economic … business cycle fluctuations by using an estimated New Keynesian model featuring policy risk as well as uncertainty about … technology. We directly measure uncertainty from aggregate time series and find considerable evidence of time-varying policy risk …

An important question for central banks is how they should report the uncertainty of their forecasts. This paper … discusses a way in which a central bank could report the uncertainty of its forecasts in a world in which it used a single …

emerging economies. This paper argues that uncertainty about future monetary policy is a separate transmission channel. We … focus on the taper tantrum episode in 2013, a period with an elevated uncertainty about monetary policy, and use a data set … index about monetary policy uncertainty using a list of uncertainty keywords. An advantage of this index is that it reflects …

of data is an important source of uncertainty about the state of the economy. This paper evaluates the quality of major … growing data uncertainty over the past decade for Euro area variables. As a robustness check, we reckon our results using US … data and additionally show that uncertainty calculations are robust towards changes in final revision definition. Moreover …