Measuring economic uncertainty is crucial for understanding investment decisions by individuals and firms. Macroeconomists increasingly rely on survey data on subjective expectations. An innovative approach to measure aggregate uncertainty exploits the rounding patterns in individuals' responses...

I propose a Bayesian quantile VAR to identify and assess the impact of uncertainty and certainty shocks, unifying Bloom's (2009) two identification steps into one. I find that an uncertainty shock widens the conditional distribution of future real economic activity growth, in line with a risk...

In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence-generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across...

In a structural dynamic model that incorporates two broad production sectors with different carbon emissions, we find that climate policy uncertainty (CPU) shocks (i) lower the market value of the highly carbon-emitting sector relative to the low carbon-emitting sector, and (ii) reduce real...

Customer satisfaction is an important metric to predict customer behavior and as a result firms' profitability. Expectations of a product's performance serve as a reference point against which customers evaluate their satisfaction with the products' actual performance. However, what is the...

We develop a measure of static misallocation that separates uncertainty from misallocation generated by tax-like distortions. In the Finnish firm-level data, uncertainty accounts for the majority of ex post misallocation and explains a strong decreasing age-dependent trend in it. To understand...

Brexit - the United Kingdom leaving the European Union - continues to create an unpredictable social and political landscape. Uncertainty and perceptions are influential drivers when it comes to migration decisions, and yet, the literature's inference typically relies on individual-level data....