This paper is concerned with the problem of ruin in the classical compound binomial and compound Poisson risk models. Our primary purpose is to extend to those models an exact formula derived by Picard and Lefèvre (1997) for the probability of (non-)ruin within finite time. First, a standard...

Dans cet article, nous proposons une démarche originale visant à évaluer la capacité des tests usuels de backtesting à discriminer différentes prévisions de Value at Risk (VaR) ne fournissant pas la même évaluation ex-ante du risque. Nos résultats montrent que, pour un même actif, ces...

This paper proposes a new duration-based backtesting procedure for VaR forecasts. The GMM test framework proposed by Bontemps (2006) to test for the distributional assumption (i.e. the geometric distribution) is applied to the case of the VaR forecasts validity. Using simple J-statistic based on...

This paper proposes a new test of Value at Risk (VaR) validation. Our test exploits the idea that the sequence of VaR violations (Hit function) - taking value 1-α, if there is a violation, and -α otherwise - for a nominal coverage rate α verifies the properties of a martingale difference if...

I show that the structure of the firm is not neutral in respect to regulatory capital budgeted under rules which are based on the Value-at-Risk.

This article proposes omnibus specification tests of parametric dynamic quantile models. Contrary to the existing procedures, we allow for a flexible specification, where a possibly continuum of quantiles are simultaneously specified under fairly weak conditions on the serial dependence in the...

This chapter recalls the main tools useful to compute Value at Risk associated with a m-dimensional portfolio. Then, the limitations of the use of these tools is explained, as soon as non-stationarities are observed in time series. Indeed, specific behaviours observed by financial assets, like...

Basel II and Solvency 2 both use the Value-at Risk (VaR) as the risk measure to compute the Capital Requirements. In practice, to calibrate the VaR, a normal approximation is often chosen for the unknown distribution of the yearly log returns of financial assets. This is usually justified by the...

We propose an effective equity model adapted for medium term and long term risk assessment. One of its specific aspects is to allow an asymetrical dampening of the equity risk (called the dampener effect) conditional to the cyclical level of equity prices and to enable accurate Value At Risk...