A healthy financial system encourages the efficient allocation of capital and risk. The collapse of the house price bubble led to the financial crisis that started in 2007. There is a large empirical literature concerning the relation between asset price bubbles and financial crises. I evaluate...

Most financial and investment decisions are based on considerations of possible future changes and require forecasts on the evolution of the financial world. Time series and processes are the natural tools for describing the dynamic behavior of financial data, leading to the required forecasts....