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High-dimensional forecasting with known knowns and known unknowns
Pesaran, M. Hashem; Smith, Ron - 2024
-dimensional setting with an application to forecasting UK inflation at different horizons over the period 2020q1-2023q1. This application …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014469011
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Monetary Policy, Judgment and Near-Rational Exuberance
Bullard, James; Evans, George W.; Honkapohja, Seppo - 2007
We study how the use of judgment or "add-factors" in macroeconomic forecasting may disturb the set of equilibrium outcomes when agents learn using recursive methods. We examine the possibility of a new phenomenon, which we call exuberance equilibria, in the New Keynesian monetary policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014052422
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Forecast uncertainties in macroeconometric modelling : an application to the UK economy
Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2000
intervals. Probability forecasts relating to UK output growth and inflation, obtained using a small macroeconometric model, are … presented. We discuss in detail the probability that inflation will fall within the Bank of England's target range and that … insights on the interrelatedness of output growth and inflation outcomes at different horizons. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009781626
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Forecast uncertainties in macroeconometric modelling : an application to the UK economy
Garratt, Anthony; Lee, Kevin C.; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2000
intervals. Probability forecasts relating to UK output growth and inflation, obtained using a small macroeconometric model, are … presented. We discuss in detail the probability that inflation will fall within the Bank of England's target range and that … insights on the interrelatedness of output growth and inflation outcomes at different horizons. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001539419
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Forecast uncertainties in macroeconomic modeling : an application to the UK economy
Garratt, Anthony; Lee, Kevin C.; Pesaran, M. Hashem; … - In: Journal of the American Statistical Association : JASA 98 (2003) 464, pp. 829-838
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001971275
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Forecasting random walks under drift instability
Pesaran, M. Hashem; Pick, Andreas - 2009
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003816240
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Forecasting random walks under drift instability
Pesaran, M. Hashem; Pick, Andreas - 2008
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003850869
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Forecasting random walks under drift instability
Pesaran, M. Hashem (contributor); Pick, Andreas (contributor) - 2008
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003711763
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Forecasting Random Walks Under Drift Instability
Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2011
techniques are applied to monthly inflation series of 21 OECD countries and it is found that average forecasting methods in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012756639
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Forecasting Random Walks under Drift Instability
Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2011
techniques are applied to monthly inflation series of 21 OECD countries and it is found that average forecasting methods in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012714199