Modelling the volatility (or kurtosis) of the implied volatility is an important aspect of financial markets when analysing market consensus and risk strategies. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the ability of symmetric and asymmetric GARCH systems to model the volatility of the FTSE 100...

This article contrasts the experiences of the United States and United Kingdom during and after the Great Recession to understand the role of financial shocks in the magnitude of the crises and length of the recoveries. It starts from the common consensus that the Great Recession first and...

Are financial cycles an international phenomenon, and, if so, how do financial cycles interact? This letter provides new evidence for the US and the UK. Considering the properties of the data in both the time and the frequency domains, we find a strong relation between the financial cycles of...

The cyclical behaviour of prices in the U.K. is investigated using a sample of annual observations covering the period 1886 1993. A structural time series model relating consumer prices to output is estimated over four sub-periods. The results indicate that prices were procyclical in the...

In this paper, we investigate the dynamic link between recessions and stock market liquidity by examining the predictive content of illiquidity for US recessions. After controlling for other commonly featured recession predictors such as term spreads and credit spreads, we find that the...

This study contributes to the literature by identifying the most appropriate factor to detect and measure Financial Cycles, similar to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Business Cycles. Four financial variables were included in the study: Credit, House Prices, Share Prices and Interest Rates. The...

In this paper, we study the co-movements between stock market indices and real economic activity over the business cycle in France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom and the United States, using two complementary approaches in our analysis. First, we identify the turning points in real economy...

In recent times, a large number of studies has investigated the empirical properties of financial cycles within countries, mainly based on band-pass filter techniques. The contribution of this paper to the literature is twofold. First, in contrast to most existing studies in the financial cycle...

We examine the link between financial market illiquidity and macroeconomic dynamics by fitting a Bayesian time-varying parameter VAR with stochastic volatility to UK data from 1988Q1 to 2016Q4. We capture liquidity conditions in the stock market using a battery of illiquidity proxies. This paper...

'Consumption risk sharing' refers to the ability of agents to insure or protect their consumption against shocks to their income, for example, by borrowing and lending or holding claims on foreign equity. So measuring the extent of risk sharing informs us about how consumption is likely to...