To answer this question, we develop new testing methods for identifying superior forecasting skills in settings with … forecasting skills for any variables or at any point in time while carefully controlling for the role of “luck” which can give … can be used to identify specialist, generalist, and event-specific skills in forecasting performance. We apply our new …

combining forecasts from different models helps improve the out-of-sample forecasting performance for US short-term rates …. Imposing restrictions from the expectations hypothesis on the forecasting model are found to help at long forecasting horizons …

combining forecasts from different models helps improve the out-of-sample forecasting performance for US short-term rates …. Imposing restrictions from the expectations hypothesis on the forecasting model are found to help at long forecasting horizons …

This paper provides a novel approach to forecasting time series subject to discrete structural breaks. We propose a …

This paper provides a novel approach to forecasting time series subject to discrete structural breaks. We propose a …

This paper provides a novel approach to forecasting time series subject to discrete structural breaks. We propose a …

We develop novel forecasting methods for panel data with heterogeneous parameters and examine them together with … forecasting methods can perform better than forecasts based on individual estimates and demonstrate how gains in predictive … pretesting tool. Through a set of Monte Carlo simulations and three empirical applications to house prices, CPI inflation, and …