One empirical argument that has been around for some time and that clearly contra- dicts equity market efficiency is that market prices seem too volatile to be optimal estimates of the present value of future discounted cash flows. Based on this, it is deduced that systematic pricing errors...

Investors' expectations on firms' cash flow growth can be biased (e.g. Bordalo et al. (2019)), yet we know little about how these biases and their asset pricing implications vary with forecast horizons. In this paper, I show that extreme expectations at all horizons beyond the current period...

I study the effects of risk and ambiguity (Knightian uncertainty) on optimal portfolios and equilibrium asset prices when investors receive information that is difficult to link to fundamentals. I show that the desire of investors to hedge ambiguity leads to portfolio inertia and excess...

I study the effects of aversion to risk and ambiguity (uncertainty in the sense of Knight (1921)) on the value of the market portfolio when investors receive public information that they find difficult to link to fundamentals and hence treat as ambiguous. I show that small changes in public...

We show how information acquisition costs can be identified using observable choice data. Identifying information costs from behavior is especially relevant when these costs depend on factors-such as time, effort, and cognitive resources-that are difficult to observe directly, as in models of...

This paper develops a decision-theoretic framework to study rational inattention (Sims [1998, 2003]). We provide an axiomatic characterization that relates rationally inattentive behavior to attitudes towards flexibility (Kreps [1979]) and temporal resolution of uncertainty (Kreps and Porteus...

I develop a sequential trading model with ambiguity-averse market makers and provide a theoretical explanation to the historical coincidence of ambiguous events, asset illiquidity, and price variability. My model implies that the bid-ask spread of an asset contains an additive component of...

We introduce the financial economics of market microstructure into the financial econometrics of asset return volatility estimation. In particular, we use market microstructure theory to derive the cross-correlation function between latent returns and market microstructure noise, which feature...

We investigate how risk aversion (RA) shapes the informative content of prices in an experimental asset market, where traders are sorted according to their RA. RA should induce steeper individual demands and, under its most common parametrizations, drive equilibrium prices closer to revealing...

We build an equilibrium model to explain why stock return predictability concentrates in bad times. The key feature is that investors use different forecasting models, and hence assess uncertainty differently. As economic conditions deteriorate, uncertainty rises and investors' opinions...