This paper investigates the sources of the widely noticed reduction in the volatility of American business cycles since the mid 1980s. Our analysis of reduced volatility emphasizes the sharp decline in the standard deviation of changes in real GDP, of the output gap, and of the inflation rate

The dismal decade of 2010-19 recorded the slowest productivity growth of any decade in U.S. history, only 1.1 percent per year in the business sector. Yet the pandemic appears to have created a resurgence in productivity growth with a 4.1 percent rate achieved in the four quarters of 2020. This...

This paper investigates the sources of the widely noticed reduction in the volatility of American business cycles since the mid 1980s. Our analysis of reduced volatility emphasizes the sharp decline in the standard deviation of changes in real GDP, of the output gap, and of the inflation...

This paper studies the relationship between real wages and unernployment in Europe. It finds no evidence that high real wages are responsible for the differing behavior of unemployment in Europe as contrasted with the U. S., and across European countries finds patterns of real wage behavior that...

The velocity of both M1 and M2 appears to have experienced a sharp and persistent downward shift during 1981 and 1982. The implications of this shift are reexamined within the context of the previous literature on quarterly econometric equations explaining the demand for money. The traditional...

The velocity of both M1 and M2 appears to have experienced a sharp and persistent downward shift during 1981 and 1982. The implications of this shift are reexamined within the context of the previous literature on quarterly econometric equations explaining the demand for money. The traditional...