construct a credible counterfactual situation ? a precise statement of what would have happened in the absence of the policy …

explained as resulting from anchoring. However, experiments presented in support of this interpretation lack economic conditions … forecasting experiment, we find monetary incentives to substantially reduce and higher task complexity and risk to increase the … bias. Anchors ubiquitously reduce the forecasts' variance, while individual cognitive abilities and learning effects show …

used in laboratory experiments. We use a field experiment to test whether the game can predict real world investments by …The incentivized risky investment game has become a popular tool in lab-in-the-field experiments for its simplicity and … detect attenuation bias due to measurement error. Subjects'cognitive memory of the game played one year earlier is strongly …