' incentives to create jobs, increases unemployment, and lowers GDP. To quantify the effects of this novel channel, we extend the … counterfactual exercises. We find that the adverse effects of our mechanism on the economy's TFP, GDP, and unemployment are sizable. …

Most economists maintain that the labor market in the United States (and elsewhere) is 'tight' because unemployment … rates are low and the Beveridge Curve (the vacancies-to-unemployment ratio) is high. They infer from this that there is … potential for wage-push inflation. However, real wages are falling rapidly at present and, prior to that, real wages had been …

not provide a strong argument against low inflation targets. …