This paper considers spot variance path estimation from datasets of intraday high frequency asset prices in the presence of diurnal variance patterns, jumps, leverage effects and microstructure noise. We rely on parametric and nonparametric methods. The estimated spot variance path can be used...

A test for serial independence is proposed which is related to the BDS test but focuses on tail event probabilities rather than probabilities near the center of the distribution. The motivation behind this approach is to obtain a test more suitable for detecting structure in the tails, such as...

This paper features an analysis of the cointegration relationships among agricultural commodity, ethanol and Cushing crude oil spot and futures prices. The use of grains for the creation of bio-fuels has sparked fears that these demands are inflating food prices. We analyse approximately 10...

We investigate high-frequency volatility models for analyzing intra-day tick by tick stock price changes using Bayesian estimation procedures. Our key interest is the extraction of intra-day volatility patterns from high-frequency integer price changes. We account for the discrete nature of the...

We empirically evaluate a behavioural model with boundedly rational traders who disagree about the persistence of deviations from the fundamental stock price. Fundamentalist traders believe in mean-reversion, while chartists extrapolate trends. Agents gradually switch between the two rules,...

We introduce a dynamic Skellam model that measures stochastic volatility from high-frequency tick-by-tick discrete stock price changes. The likelihood function for our model is analytically intractable and requires Monte Carlo integration methods for its numerical evaluation. The proposed...

In the class of univariate conditional volatility models, the three most popular are the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model of Engle (1982) and Bollerslev (1986), the GJR (or threshold GARCH) model of Glosten, Jagannathan and Runkle (1992), and the...

In finance, durations between successive transactions are usually modelled by the autoregressive conditional duration model based on a continuous distribution omitting frequent zero values. Zero durations can be caused by either split transactions or independent transactions. We propose a...

The increasing availability of financial market data at intraday frequencies has not only led to the development of improved ex-post volatility measurements but has also inspired research into their potential value as an informa-tion source for longer horizon volatility forecasts. In this paper...