Technical analysis involves the prediction of future exchange rate (or other assetprice) movements from an inductive analysis of past movements. A reading of the large literature on this topic allows us to establish a set of stylised facts, including the facts that technical analysis is an...

Technical analysis involves the prediction of future exchange rate (or other asset-price) movements from an inductive analysis of past movements. A reading of the large literature on this topic allows us to establish a set of stylised facts, including the facts that technical analysis is an...

We present a model of exchange rates, which incorporates the monetary approach and technical trading, and we present the reduced form based on the minimal state variable solution, where both fundamentals and backward-looking term determine the spot exchange rates.Finally, we estimate the impact...

We examine 112,792 daily candles using more than one million spot quotes among 24 currency pairs between 2000 and 2018. We find that chart patterns are profitable. Relying on these visually based patterns achieves returns of more than 600% after accounting for the transaction costs....

We investigate the existence of chart patterns in the Euro/Dollar intra-daily foreign exchange market. We use two identification methods of the different chart patterns: one built on close prices only, and one based on low and high prices. We look for twelve types of chart patterns and we study...

We present a model of exchange rates, which incorporates the monetary approach and technical trading, and we present the reduced form based on the minimal state variable solution, where both fundamentals and backward-looking term determine the spot exchange rates. Finally, we estimate the impact...

This paper uses a microstructure approach to analyze the effectiveness of capital controls introduced in Brazil to counter an appreciation of the Real. Based on a rich data set from the Brazilian foreign exchange market, we estimate a reduced-form VAR to characterize the interaction of the...

Since 1997, the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has met monthly to set the UK policy interest rate. We examine evidence of systematic patterns in exchange rate movements on MPC days over the first decade of operation of the MPC. Daily data reveal significant differences in...

Though unambiguously outperforming all other financial markets in terms of liquidity, foreign exchange trading is still performed in opaque and decentralized markets. In particular, the two-tier market structure consisting of a customer segment and an interdealer segment to which only market...

We investigate the relation between the EUR/HUF exchange rate on the one hand and news announcements and order flow on the other hand using intraday data. We extend the existing literature on foreign exchange market microstructure by considering a small open transition economy. We find that the...