We study the relation between inflation and real activity over the business cycle. We employ a Trend-Cycle VAR model to … control for low-frequency movements in inflation, unemployment, and growth that are pervasive in the post-WWII period. We show … that cyclical fluctuations of inflation are related to cyclical movements in real activity and unemployment, in line with …

difference by showing that, although the pass-through of marginal cost into inflation is substantial, the elasticity of marginal … inflation …

The US and other advanced countries suffered bursts of severe inflation in 2021 and the first half of 2022, followed by … declines of inflation later in 2022, in some countries. In times of high volatility of price determinants--cost and … productivity--inflation can jump upward and fall downward at high speed, contrary to the uniformly sticky behavior associated with …

We show that, in a broad class of menu cost models, the dynamics of aggregate inflation in response to arbitrary shocks …

variables may be fractionally integrated and the predictive relation may feature cointegration, we provide sup-Wald break tests …

its slope coefficient in recent years, as well as a shrinking role of lagged price inflation in the determination of wage … inflation. We provide estimates of a conditional wage Phillips curve, based on a structural decomposition of wage, price and …

. The model delivers a static wage Phillips curve linking current wage inflation to current unemployment. For standard … stickiness, which features a forward-looking wage Phillips curve, linking current wage inflation to future expected wage … inflation and current unemployment. This result puts in perspective the role played by the forward-looking component of the new …

Treasury bill rate, housing starts, industrial production, inflation and their forecasts are trend stationary. The corporate …

This paper provides an explanation for the run-up of U.S. inflation in the 1960s and 1970s and the sharp disinflation … by low inflation. However, prolonged episodes of high inflation ending with rapid disinflations can occur when … policymakers underestimate both the natural rate of unemployment and the persistence of inflation in the Phillips curve. I estimate …