This paper studies the joint dynamics of real time U.S. inflation and the mean inflation predictions of the Survey of … (UC) model of inflation and a sticky information (SI) prediction mechanism for SPF inflation predictions. We add drifting … gap inflation persistence to a UC model that already has stochastic volatility (SV) afflicting trend and gap inflation …

Inflation (PCCI), a measure of underlying inflation in the euro area. The PCCI reflects the view that underlying inflation … component of inflation. Methodologically, it relies on a generalised dynamic factor model estimated on a large set of … disaggregated HICP inflation rates for 12 euro area countries. For each individual inflation rate, we estimate a low …

inflation rates of Turkey and propose a new weighting scheme, the time-varying simple weighting method. Our guiding principle … prospective credibility of the inflation-targeting regime of the central bank of the Republic of Turkey …

This paper revisits inflation forecasting using reduced-form Phillips curve forecasts, that is, inflation forecasts … inflation, a host of real-activity data, term structure data, nominal data, and surveys. In each individual specification, we … deflator inflation rates for the United States in the post-World War II period. Over the full 1960-2008 sample, the framework …

This paper revisits the accuracy of inflation forecasting using activity and expectations variables. We apply Bayesian … values of inflation, a host of real activity data, term structure data, nominal data and surveys. In this model average we … affect any inflation forecast model. The different versions of our framework are used to model U.S. PCE deflator and GDP …

Policymakers and researchers see inflation characterized by cyclical fluctuations driven by changes in resource … utilization and temporary shocks, around a trend influenced by inflation expectations. We study the in-sample inflation dynamics … and forecast inflation out-of-sample by analyzing a New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) in the frequency domain. In …

breaks in the performance of most simple Phillips curves. Euro area inflation was particularly hard to forecast in the run … practitioners, we find that: (i) the key type of time variation to consider is an inflation trend; (ii) a simple filter-based output …

We use a broad-range set of inflation models and pseudo out-of-sample forecasts to assess their predictive ability …

The aim of this paper is to investigate the performance of Phillips curve to forecast inflation in a high inflation … and a naive no change model. The data pertains to the quarterly inflation rate in Turkey for the period of 1987-2001. The … results show that inflation forecasts obtained from the Phillips curve are found to be more accurate than forecasts based on …

The authors conduct an empirical analysis of the role of labor market activities in inflation and conclude that wage … growth is not very informative for predicting price inflation. But price inflation does seem to help predict wage growth …