We develop a framework for analyzing "medium-runʺ departures from balanced growth, and apply it to the economies of continental Europe. A time-varying factor-augmenting production function (mimicking "directedʺ technical change) with a below-unitary substitution elasticity coupled with...

In this paper, we examine the performance and robustness of optimised interest-rate rules in four models of the euro area which differ considerably in terms of size, degree of aggregation, relevance of forward-looking behavioural elements and adherence to micro-foundations. Our findings are...

We suggest a new method dealing with the problem of endogeneity of the threshold variable in single regression threshold models and seemingly unrelated systems of them based on copula theory. This theory enables us to relax the assumption that the threshold variable is normally distributed and...

Despite being critical parameters in many economic fields, the received wisdom, in theoretical and empirical literatures, states that joint identification of the elasticity of capital-labor substitution and technical bias is infeasible. This paper challenges that pessimistic interpretation....

We evaluate residual projection strategies in the context of a large-scale macro model of the euro area and smaller benchmark time-series models. The exercises attempt to measure the accuracy of model-based forecasts simulated both out-of-sample and in-sample. Both exercises incorporate...

We examine the degree of market power in the big four countries of the euro area using macro and firm-micro data. We focus on three main indicators of market power in and across countries: namely, the concentration ratios, the markup and the degree of economic dynamism. For the macro database we...

Density forecast combinations are examined in real-time using the log score to compare five methods: fixed weights, static and dynamic prediction pools, as well as Bayesian and dynamic model averaging. Since real-time data involves one vintage per time period and are subject to revisions, the...

We compare real-time density forecasts for the euro area using three DSGE models. The benchmark is the Smets-Wouters model and its forecasts of real GDP growth and inflation are compared with those from two extensions. The first adds financial frictions and expands the observables to include a...