Tobacco control policies have effectively raised the price of cigarettes and other tobacco products. However, these price increases have been shown to disproportionately fall upon poorer households, with fewer resources. In this analysis, we provide an initial indication of the effect increased...

Empirical evidence on the effect of defense spending on US output is at best mixed. Against this backdrop, this paper assesses the impact of a positive defense spending shock on the growth rate of real GNP using a FAVAR model estimated with 116 variables spanning the quarterly period of 1976:01...

This paper investigates the asymmetric and nonlinear transmission of financial and energy prices to US five-year financial CDS sector index spreads for the banking, financial services and insurance sectors in the short- and long-run over the recent periods including the world financial crisis....

The Feldstein-Horioka (FH) puzzle, that is the strong correlation between saving and investment in a world where obstacles to capital mobility are limited, has been studied extensively since it was exposed in 1980. Even though the theoretical and empirical literature has examined many of its...

This paper employs classical bivariate, factor augmented (FA), slab and spike variable selection (SSVS)-based, and Bayesian semiparametric shrinkage (BSS)-based predictive regression models to forecast the US real private residential fixed investment series over an out of sample period of 1983Q1...

The association between oil prices and inflation has remained an intriguing issue for media, academic as well as policy enquiry. Against this backdrop, we perform the frequency-domain causality test to investigate whether the growth rate of oil prices has predictive content for inflation in...

This paper investigates the causal relationship between asset prices and per capita output across 50 US states and the District of Columbia over 1975 to 2012. A bootstrap panel Granger causality approach is applied on a trivariate VAR comprising of real house prices, real stock prices and real...

This paper studies the interplay of fiscal policy and asset price returns of the United States in a time-varying-parameter vector autoregressive model. Using annual data from 1890 to 2013, we study the effects of dynamic shocks to both fiscal policy and asset returns on asset returns and fiscal...

Information on economic policy uncertainty (EPU) does matter in predicting oil returns especially when accounting for omitted nonlinearities in the relationship between these two variables via a time-varying coefficient approach. In this work, we compare the forecastability of standard, Bayesian...

This paper examines whether a volatility/risk transmission exists between the Dow Jones Islamic stock and three conventional stock markets for the U.S., Europe, and Asia during the pre- and the in- and post-2008 crisis periods. It also explores the volatility spillover dynamics between those...