In this paper, an adaptive smoothing forecasting approach based on evolutionary spectra as developed by Rao and Shapiro (1970) is applied to the 3003 time series of various types and lengths used in the M3-Competition (Makridakis and Hibon, 2000). Comparisons of out-of-sample forecasts are made...

This paper develops two methods for estimating the effect of schooling on achievement test scores that control for the endogeneity of schooling by postulating that both schooling and test scores are generated by a common unobserved latent ability. These methods are applied to data on schooling...

Previous work (Bell and Jones, Demogr Res <CitationRef CitationID="CR1">2013a</CitationRef>; Bell and Jones, Soc Sci Med <CitationRef CitationID="CR3">2013c</CitationRef>; Luo and Hodges, Under review <CitationRef CitationID="CR14">2013</CitationRef>) has shown that, when there are trends in either the period or cohort residuals of Yang and Land’s Hierarchical age–period–cohort (APC) model (Yang and Land, Sociol...</citationref></citationref></citationref>

This paper presents the R package MitISEM, which provides an automatic and flexible method to approximate a non-elliptical target density using adaptive mixtures of Student-t densities, where only a kernel of the target density is required. The approximation can be used as a candidate density in...

This discussion paper resulted in an article in the <I>Journal of Business & Economic Statistics</I> (2003). Volume 21, pages 547-563.<P> Stylized facts show that the average growth rates of US per capitaconsumption and income differ in recession and expansion periods.Since a linear combination of such...</p></i>