Between 2013 and 2014, following the recession triggered by the sovereign debt crisis, euro-area inflation decreased sharply. Although a fall in the inflation rate was to be expected, given the severity of the recession, professional forecasters failed to anticipate it. A possible explanation...

The flattening of the Phillips curve observed in the industrial countries has been attributed to globalisation, while the traditional explanation centres on monetary policy credibility. The empirical literature is not conclusive, since macroeconomic data are affected by substantial...

In the case of the consumer price index the importance of a seasonally adjusted measure lies in the possibility of promptly identifying turning points in inflation. The focus of this paper is the so-called "cost-of-living" index, the most used measure of Italian inflation. Our aim is to identify...