The Great Recession and the subsequent period of subdued GDP growth in most advanced economies have highlighted the …, and fluctuations in trend GDP growth. In this paper, we put forward an extension of the standard Markov-Switching Dynamic … Factor Model (MS-DFM) by incorporating two new features: switches in volatility and time-variation in trend GDP growth. First …

This paper extends the OECD Economics Department’s suite of short-term indicator models for quarterly GDP growth, which … or constant growth benchmarks. The small-scale indicator models would have allowed the identification of the growth … higher GDP growth volatility in most BRIICS is accounted for. …