Endogenous Uncertainty is that component of economic risk and market volatility which is propagated within the economy by the beliefs and actions of agents. The theory of Rational Belief (see Kurz [1994]) permits rational agents to hold diverse beliefs and consequently, a Rational Belief...

The paper seeks to lay out a stock-flow-based theoretical framework that provides a foundation for a general theory of pricing. Contemporary marginalist economics is usually based on the assumption that prices are set in line with the value placed on goods by consumers. It does not take into...

We study the macrofinancial linkage of stock market and financial system stability in Indonesia. Three stock market-based measures are proposed and are tested to search for possible empirical link from observed stock prices (stock market mispricing), combination of observed price and fundamental...

We develop a tractable partial equilibrium model to analyze the impact on the bond market generated by a ban on naked credit default swaps. We demonstrate that such a ban will have a negligible impact on the borrowing costs if CDS speculators are risk averse and take positions which are small...

We consider a gradient boosting decision trees (GBDT) approach to predict large S&P 500 price drops from a set of 150 technical, fundamental and macroeconomic features. We report an improved accuracy of GBDT over other machine learning (ML) methods on the S&P 500 futures prices. We show that...