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On heuristic and linear models of judgment: Mapping the demand for knowledge

Hogarth, Robin; Karelaia, Natalia - Department of Economics and Business, Universitat … - 2006

has emphasized the dysfunctional aspects of judgmental heuristics, and yet, other findings suggest that these can be … methodology developed to specify the effectiveness of heuristics in different environments and allows direct comparisons between … tasks. Our results highlight the trade-off between linear models and heuristics. Whereas the former are cognitively …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005772356

On ignoring scientific evidence: The bumpy road to enlightenment

Hogarth, Robin - Department of Economics and Business, Universitat … - 2006

It is well accepted that people resist evidence that contradicts their beliefs. Moreover, despite their training, many scientists reject results that are inconsistent with their theories. This phenomenon is discussed in relation to the field of judgment and decision making by describing four...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005772583

Locating emergency services with different priorities: The priority queuing covering location problem

Silva, Francisco; Serra, Daniel - Department of Economics and Business, Universitat … - 2008

Previous covering models for emergency service consider all the calls to be of the same importance and impose the same waiting time constraints independently of the service's priority. This type of constraint is clearly inappropriate in many contexts. For example, in urban medical emergency...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005772532

Ambiguity seeking as a result of the status quo bias

Roca, Mercè; Hogarth, Robin; Maule, A. John - Department of Economics and Business, Universitat … - 2005

Several factors affect attitudes toward ambiguity. What happens, however, when people are asked to exchange an ambiguous alternative in their possession for an unambiguous one? We present three experiments in which individuals preferred to retain the former. This status quo bias emerged both...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005704847

Insurance and safety after September 11, 2001: Coming to grips with the costs and threats of terrorism

Hogarth, Robin - Department of Economics and Business, Universitat … - 2002

This chapter, originally written as a consequence of the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, provides an elementary, everyday introduction to the concepts of risk and insurance. Conceptually, risk has two dimensions: a potential loss, and the chance of that loss being realized. People can,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005772000

Deciding analytically or trusting your intuition? The advantadges and disadvantadges of analytic and intuitive thought

Hogarth, Robin - Department of Economics and Business, Universitat … - 2002

-old issue of whether and when people should trust “intuition” or “analysis.” To do this, a framework is presented to understand …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005772107

Ignoring information in binary choice with continuous variables: When is less 'more'?

Hogarth, Robin; Karelaia, Natalia - Department of Economics and Business, Universitat … - 2004

When can a single variable be more accurate in binary choice than multiple sources of information? We derive analytically the probability that a single variable (SV) will correctly predict one of two choices when both criterion and predictor are continuous variables. We further provide analogous...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005772123

Regions of rationality: Maps for bounded agents

Hogarth, Robin; Karelaia, Natalia - Department of Economics and Business, Universitat … - 2005

,” i.e., the areas for which heuristics are and are not effective. To map the contours of such regions, we derive … probabilities that heuristics identify the best of m alternatives (m > 2) characterized by k attributes or cues (k > 1). The … heuristics include a single variable (lexicographic), variations of elimination-by-aspects, equal weighting, hybrids of the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005772221

Is confidence in decisions related to feedback? Evidence-and lack of evidence-from random samples of real-world managerial behavior?

Hogarth, Robin - Department of Economics and Business, Universitat … - 2003

Confidence in decision making is an important dimension of managerial behavior. However, what is the relation between confidence, on the one hand, and the fact of receiving or expecting to receive feedback on decisions taken, on the other hand? To explore this and related issues in the context...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005772371

Take-the-best and other simple strategies: Why and when they work 'well' in binary choice

Hogarth, Robin; Karelaia, Natalia - Department of Economics and Business, Universitat … - 2003

The effectiveness of decision rules depends on characteristics of both rules and environments. A theoretical analysis of environments specifies the relative predictive accuracies of the lexicographic rule 'take-the-best' (TTB) and other simple strategies for binary choice. We identify three...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005772523