We analyze the importance of global shocks for the global economy and national policy makers. More specifically, we investigate whether monetary policy has become less effective in the wake of financial globalization. We also examine whether there is increasing uncertainty for central banks due...

We analyze the evolution and drivers of inflation during the pandemic and the likely trajectory of inflation in the near-term using an event study of inflation around global recessions and a factor-augmented vector auto-regression (FAVAR) model. We report three main results. First, the decline...

We study the extent of global inflation synchronization using a dynamic factor model in a large set of countries over a half century. Our methodology allows us to account for differences across groups of countries (advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies) and to analyze...

Global excess liquidity roaming the world’s financial markets (or its sudden absence) is sometimes believed to limit sovereign monetary policy even in large economies such as the euro area. However, there is still discussion about what constitutes global excess liquidity and how exactly it...

Global excess liquidity roaming the world's financial markets (or its sudden absence) is sometimes believed to limit sovereign monetary policy even in large economies such as the euro area. However, there is still discussion about what constitutes global excess liquidity and how exactly it...

This paper investigates the impacts of inflation uncertainty on inflation and economic activities. We take three steps. We first put together various measures of inflation uncertainty—including survey- and model-based - and extract a common inflation uncertainty for the group of seven advanced...

This study provides estimates of economic uncertainty and inflation uncertainty for the Greek economy and considers their time-varying impact on the corresponding macroeconomic variables, i.e. GDP growth and inflation. The authors find that, in both cases, the degree of uncertainty varies over...

This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groupsindustrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose...