In this paper international comovements among a set of key real and nominal macroeconomic variables for the G-7 countries have been investigated for the 1980-2005 period, using a Factor Vector Autoregressive approach. We present evidence that comovements in macroeconomic variables do not concern...

In this paper we study the relationship between output and inflation for India, Brazil, and South Africa using the EGARCH model. For India and South Africa, we find evidence for: (1) the Cukierman and Meltzer hypothesis that inflation volatility raises inflation; (2) the Friedman hypothesis that...

This study provides estimates of economic uncertainty and inflation uncertainty for the Greek economy and considers their time-varying impact on the corresponding macroeconomic variables, i.e. GDP growth and inflation. The authors find that, in both cases, the degree of uncertainty varies over...

We examine real uncertainty (measured by the variability of real growth) and whether it impacts on inflation. Additionally, we investigate whether nominal or real uncertainty impact on growth and, if so, in what direction. The resultsindicate that nominal uncertainty impacted negatively on...

Based on market expectations reported by the Central Bank of Brazil for the SELIC interest rate, the IPCA inflation, the exchange rate (BRL/USD) and the growth rate of industrial production for four different forecasting horizons, this work analyzes the term structures of disagreement in...

Monetary policy and the private sector behavior of the US economy are modeled as a time varying structural vector autoregression, where the sources of time variation are both the coefficients and the variance covariance matrix of the innovations. The paper develops a new, simple modeling...

It is standard to model the output-inflation trade-off as a linear relationship with a time-invariant slope. We assess empirical evidence for three types of nonlinearity in the short-run Phillips curve. At an empirical level, we aim to discover why large negative output gaps in Japan during the...

In recent years, it has become increasingly common to estimate New Keynesian Phillips curves with a measure of firms' real marginal cost as the real driving variable. It has been argued that this measure is both theoretically and empirically superior to the traditional output gap. In this paper,...

In recent years, it has become increasingly common to estimate New Keynesian Phillips curves with a measure of firms' real marginal cost as the real driving variable. It has been argued that this measure is both theoretically and empirically superior to the traditional output gap. In this paper,...

This paper provides an assessment of Euro area inflation dynamics based on the distribution dynamics approach. It is found that raw series and trends have converged, although the convergence process has not been constant over time. Inflation cycles still lack of synchronization over short time...