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Galton's Fallacy and Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis
Quah, Danny - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1993
Recent tests for the convergence hypothesis derive from regressing average growth rates on initial levels: a negative initial level coefficient is interpreted as convergence. These tests turn out to be plagued by Francis Galton's classical fallacy of regression towards the mean. Using a dynamic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791236
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Convergence in Output in Transition Economies: Central and Eastern Europe, 1970-1995
Estrin, Saul; Urga, Giovanni - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1997
In this paper we use unit roots/cointegration analysis and time-varying parameters procedures to test for a common growth path in the ex-communist block, both pre- and post-reform. We test whether there has been convergence within the block and between the block as a group and the West....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123521
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Endogenous Growth and Stochastic Trends
Fatás, Antonio - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1996
This paper shows that there exists a strong positive correlation between long-term growth rates and the persistence of output fluctuations in a cross section of countries. We argue that the traditional explanation of persistence, a real business cycles model with exogenous productivity shocks,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124049
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Illusive Persistence in German Unemployment
Tschernig, Rolf J.V.; Zimmermann, Klaus F - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1992
The non-stationarity of many macroeconomic time series has lead to an increased demand for economic models that are able to generate fragile equilibria. For instance, in this literature the natural unemployment rate is allowed to shift over time depending on past unemployment. Actually, many...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005666959
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The International Transmission of Credit Bubbles: Theory and Policy
Martin, Alberto; Ventura, Jaume - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2015
We live in a new world economy characterized by financial globalization and historically low interest rates. This environment is conducive to countries experiencing credit bubbles that have large macroeconomic effects at home and are quickly propagated abroad. In previous work, we built on the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011165659
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Two to Tangle: Financial Development, Political Instability and Economic Growth in Argentina (1896-2000)
Campos, Nauro F; Karanasos, Menelaos; Tan, Bin - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2008
.g., cabinet changes) has an indirect (through volatility) impact on growth; (iii) the effect of financial development is positive … and, surprisingly, not via volatility; (iv) the informal instability effects are much larger in the short- than in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005114221
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Fickle Investors: an Impediment to Growth?
Scott, Andrew; Uhlig, Harald - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1999
investment funds traces out a mean-variance tradeoff for the growth rate of the economy. In particular, the volatility of these … and volatility. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005661544
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Growth, Volatility and Political Instability: Non-Linear Time-Series Evidence for Argentina, 1896-2000
Campos, Nauro F; Karanasos, Menelaos - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2007
What is the relationship between economic growth and its volatility? Does political instability affect growth directly … or indirectly, through volatility? This paper tries to answer such questions using a power-ARCH framework with annual … legislative changes) has an indirect (through volatility) negative impact. We also find preliminary support for the idea that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005667076
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Impoverished, but Numerate? Early Numeracy in East Asia (1550–1800) and its Impact on 20th and 21st Century Economic Growth
Baten, Jörg; Sohn, Kitae - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2014
period 1550–1630. We add evidence from Japan and China from the early modern period until 1800 to obtain a human capital …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011083906
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Can Oil Prices Forecast Exchange Rates?
Ferraro, Domenico; Rogoff, Kenneth; Rossi, Barbara - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011
This paper investigates whether oil prices have a reliable and stable out-of-sample relationship with the Canadian/U.S dollar nominal exchange rate. Despite state-of-the-art methodologies, we find little systematic relation between oil prices and the exchange rate at the monthly and quarterly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009359490